I listened to the CC and I have NEVER heard a call like that."We've been waiting 20 years for this moment in history to arrive and now it has". The company was telling the world what was going on with food shortages, costs, etc. It was almost like a lecture rather than a CC.
This company and others are very very likely to do well even at these levels in the coming years. I will be doing a whole post on Food stocks along with the one on sector rotation and others. See the one alternative energy already done...
Why did I buy a small position? Sector rotation (see recent post) looks to make oil and ag stocks go down short-term. The difference is that oil will also be due to weakening fundamentals and the dollar. Ag may have some association with the dollar but the real demand is through the roof and will be for the next few years at least. Especially for potash stocks.
But as a hedge I want POT... just in case the big firms can't ignore the fundamentals and will place a stop just below support around 170. I hope it goes this low as I will then look to add more heavily depending on conditions, making the small amount I would lose here back and much more...
POT is also on my" top ten stocks for the long haul" list. MA is another one... this is just a flat-out great company and though I sold after quadrupling my position (I bought originally at the IPO) I will look to get back in on a pullback...
On other fronts...
DUG was a great stock to buy this morning. Why? The anticipation of the fed trying to strenthen the dollar and the potential for all out sector rotation away from oils tomorrow depending on what the fed does tomorrow, combined with the short term suppl easing means this was a great trade up to the meeting tomorrow. I would sell before the FOMC bc who knows what they are going to do.
Tomorrow is a big day and I have lots of cash ready.
If the Fed suggests of stopping interest rate cuts etc. look for DUG to shoot up almost immediately. I will buy at that moment. If on the other hand the fed talks of the need for further cuts to save the economy guess what... a lot of stocks will go up...
1. Financials will shoot through the roof. I will buy UYG.
2. Hedges against the dollar including Agriculture stocks, mining/mineral stocks, even oil will go up at least for a while. But oil has only so far to go here.
3. There may be movement upward in some beaten up quality tech stocks. SIGM is big on my list right now.
4. A number of other beaten up stocks may also rally, depending on what is said...
But today is mostly about cash. "Never step in front of a bus". You don't want to be on the wrong side of things before the unpredictable meeting when you can be on the right side of things right afterwards...
This blog is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.
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2 comments:
How are you doing your research to find these stocks? I'm new to the market and I want to learn the best practices and best places for information.
Thanks.
Aaron
Aaron,
If you are bran new to the market the first thing I would do is to learn about some fundamentals. What does a PEG ratio mean? A P/E ratio? How does this tend to affect stock price over the long run? What is a strong balance sheet? What is debt to equity? A current ratio? Stocks are valued based on what they are expected to earn over time. Take a look at investopedia.com and just try to learn about the market so that you know what everything means. Technical analysis also is good to learn. What is the difference between technical analysis and fundamental analysis? Look them up.
That way when you find great companies you will know what it all means. If you want to play baseball you have to know the rules...
In terms of finding stocks I use many methods. The quickest and easiest may be to look at some of the blog sites I have posted on the right. Some of them have some really good lists.
Generally I will look at a particular sector (i.e. energy) and examine as many companies as I can find. Seeking alpha is also a great source for stocks. Go to www.seekingalpha.com and poke around. The Motley Fool CAPS section is also a good place to learn about stocks. It's free to sign up. There are other methods but mostly it just takes time. Everytime I see a stock of interest I put into a list on my Scottrade account until seeing the stock makes it more and more familiar...
Not a short answer but it's a big question imo...
Best,
Jon
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