Wednesday, April 2, 2008

RIMM Blows away the numbers and guides Up and Away




And so the fire on the water likely continues for a while. But for how long. Not every company is RIMM. They are doing phenomenally well I have to admit. In part by taking market share from non-smart phones.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080402/earns_research_in_motion.html

I will not fight this tape. News like this looks bullish and I would be if not for the enormous elephant in the room that just can't be ignored... the leveraged credit mess... (see earlier posts).

I sold some TWM at a 3% loss and will sell the rest if things go too far. I hold almost 50% cash. The rest: DUG, the remainder of TWM, long longs independent of the economy (CMED right now, others if they come back down a bit) and still a very small position left in Contrafund and Bridgeway (my long-term mutual fund plays which I have been in since 2004 and 2006 respectively, but have trimmed positions in almost down to zero in pieces since January).

As I've said this is a tough market to be a bull in and a tough market to be a bear in. There is so much uncertainty and risk on both sides. Cash is king because this market has tended to move towards extremes on both ends and when that has happened it has become ripe for the picking. That is the opportunity of which I speak. Right now good companies have been thrown in with bad and so there are some long opps. But the real opportunity, I reiterate, is to go short when/if this market gets too exhuberant. Also long term undervalued picks of well run companies that are undervalued.
CMED
NYX
NM
many many others come to mind.

Best,
Jon

For today... RIMM stands victorious... they earned it...



Best,
Jon

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