Time to Pretend...

HERE IS WHY THE STOCK MARKET KEEPS GOING UP



The fundamentals are getting better. Inflation is easing. Consumer spending is holding steady. Employment is doing well. Gas prices are going down. Americans are feeling good about the economy.

Uhhhh.... Huhhhh....

Except that in every one of these numbers something is excluded or adjusted for or outright lied about to make the numbers work. By the way... this is an election year... not that this has anything to do with anything.

***Note: I had already written this post and saw this article... so I added it in... and to be fair Trader Mark (blog at right) has been arguing that the numbers are being fudged for a long time...

In the beginning of the year the market sold off because the big boys directly in the middle of all this wanted out because they knew firsthand that you can't suck trillions out of the global economy and not have a recession... that an America without credit is an America that doesn't function.

However they "got" it after BSC that in an election year, with Bush Admin in the White House, we WERE NOT going to have a bad year in the markets, that the fed would bail out anyone in trouble with taxpayer dollars, fudge the numbers if necessary, talk over and over again about how the recession would be mild and short and would end.... err.... right around the election...

The longer they lie and hide the truth the worse the fall will be. What does this mean for investors such as us... at this rate it means that 09 is going to be a b*tch for longs. Let the new admin take over the garbage. That being said it's time to discard the fundamentals and pretend that everything is ok in the market... at least until Labor*(correction... Memorial) Day. Will there be a sell in May and Walk away at that time? I expect a definite sell-off but for how long and whether the market continues as it is now after that depends on how long the Fed wants to continue putting up funny numbers.

If you know the truth about the economy and the where the stock market should be but the "inside scoop" is that the fed will do anything and everything to support the stock market this year do you listen to the truth... and sell or short... and get crushed... or do you look at the charts and act as if we are in a new bull market... while always having your fingers next to the sell button in case the mirage falls through?

I'll take door number 2.

But I'll still take my profits and run and always look at the charts (which I have been forced to learn extensively... I'm working on this.... and try to understand what the fraternity leader says, not what is really going on... at least when it comes to stocks. At the same time... unless you work for the government or live in La Jolla on your Dad's riches I suggest you do everything to insure that you solidify your job security, protect your wealth... batten down the hatches for when the illusion ends (o9?) and the worsened storm hits...

God Bless America...

This blog is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.