The Michelin Man?

No... an EIGHT month old baby living the American Dream...

It's sick but it's true. I'm not here in any way to make fun or light of obesity or being fat... it's becoming an epidemic in some areas... while others starve because they cannot afford the higher cost of food.

This picture reminds my of my undergraduate days at UCLA. Fifty thousand plus people... many leaving behind Taco Bell scraps at the outdoor 'Bell... and nothing but OBESE SQUIRRELS everywhere... Have you ever seen an obese squirrel waddle? It's little legs struggling against all odds to move its humongous mass of flesh against the physics of inertia? It's an image that just never leaves your mind.

I feel bad for the kid but this is what happens when the culture of excess and obesity goes global. YUM, Mcdonald's, Burger King, etc. are doing everything to build demand for cheap, greasy food across the globe. The world cannot take this kind of food strain, nor can the Chinese medical system when you factor in the enormous pollution, waste, etc etc etc and aging population over there. In China being American is cool... for better or for worse (first they embrace our culture... then they improve upon it... then they we pay them for their improvements... watch out!Really!) For now? The most popular car is the Buick...

It's sick (the Buick I mean). But you can see one of the reasons I consider POT, MOS, and CMED to be incredible stocks for the long haul.

Let's talk a bit about the fertilizers. I have been very nimble in this market. Holding a lot of cash. In, out, back into cash, take a small loss, take a gain, cut losses, raise stops, and let winners run... until they stop out or get overextended...etc... However I have been building up some positions in POT and MOS ahead of earnings and today was the biggest day in the red I have had in a long time. The stocks fell right through their 50 day averages and sold off even more after hours. In this market no stock is safe. That's just the way it is. The biggest threat to fertilizer stocks by far is the overall market. That's an important reason in my opinion that you, and I, should still never get too weighted in these names or in any names. I believe that this is the best fundamental story in a long long time but no stock is immune...

Having said that, if there is any segment of this market that I am willing to buy and hold... especially going into earnings... it is this one. As the POT management stated on their last conference call they have been waiting for decades for this moment in history to arrive. They have contracts to sell fertilizer... except the price is not set... only the guarantee of delivery is. That means the customers have to buy... at whatever price these companies choose to sell. And the prices are doubling, tripling, etc... (more) practically going up by the second. Money may leave this sector temporarily to short cover financials or buy JPM or whatever but over time, as the techs and financials and almost every other sector of the global economy shows signs of weakening, where else can the money flow? Until proven otherwise it has to be commodities. The most reliable commodity, the one that cannot be cut without a complete return of BRIC countries to their old ways? Food.

So I guess that I am saying this: If I'm Mariano Rivera (Jonathan Papelbon)... hey I'm not going to get into that rivalry... If I'm one of those then if I'm going down it will be with my best pitch.

Even then, I never invest more than I can afford to lose.

It should be an interesting few weeks going forward here...

Oh one more thing... just for fun I started the RIMM/AAPL poll yesterday. Please take a few seconds to chime in your thoughts. You can find it on the right margin of the page above 'recent posts'... my two tech friends are split 50/50.... so this should be interesting...

"The Yellow Rose Street Beat" is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.