Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Oversold for a bit it appears

Update-

One more point... I would have loved to go short on Tues financials and others instead of just staying out but since I was not able to watch the markets all day and I did not want to risk some unforeseen government bailout or the like I chose to do nothing.
No moves were made this am. Yesterday's afternoon bounce WAS the bounce it appears. It has to be perfect to go long so if it isn't just do nothing. It now looks like coal may have had a bounce..... I am constantly looking for charts that have had nice runs and then start to fall apart for shorts. I stopped paying attention to PICO and missed it. But this is the kind of thing to look for in my opinion. In the Spring a lot of people still bought into the 'maybe there will be no recession' theme... right now there just doesn't look to be firepower left... if you are waiting for a bounce to short this is like buying into a raging bull market that doesn't offer many desirable dips in which to buy.
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Commodities getting Cheap. Short-term oversold... We should see a bounce if the deleveraging doesn't get in the way. I am looking to buy more POT on dips with tight stops. There are some other commodity longs that might have a nice run here. We are in a bear market so anything on the long side is a trade... but POT now minimally 33% undervalued, even in this market. Please not that the Weekly 50 SMA is around 160... if it continues to bounce back and hold this region 170 is next as resistance. I am waiting for the time when Oil goes down and some other commodities go up... today may have been the start of this...

I am very bearish in the intermediate term and look to go short but I feel that this market is short-term oversold especially in certain stocks. If I am wrong stops will minimize losses.

APWR, SDTH, FXI, FEED, others may also be due for a bounce. Again... I would never buy and hold these names unless the time perspective is a very long one... but a quick trade maybe... Also for a short check out JNK. That's right... JNK bond ETF! It also may be due for a bounce but do you really think it is possible for Treasuries and especially junk corporate loans to stay up over the longer term with all that garbage out there? If the Fed decides to lower at some point these may go up a bit further but ultimately they have to go down. Jim Rogers is shorting US treasuries. For Good Reason!.... Please do your own DD...

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