I put my money where my mouth is. I left a limit order out there to buy at 30.21 and it was filled while I was out. This is a small (but not tiny)position in accordance with my strategy.
COP reports tomorrow. I'm reading a book by the legendary Trader Vic (Victor Sperandeo. He describes how to quantify scientifically risk/reward. As a scientist I ALWAYS look to convert subjectivity to statistical probability to the furthest extent that it is reasonable. After looking at this I think the ratio is good but not ideal and could use some confirmation. Hence the small position. If COP stumbles due to the refining costs or other reasons, the increased crude supply makes any difference (not likely a catalyst) or the fed starts talking about inflation and stopping those rate cuts the confirmation will be in and DUG will fly...
Maybe it will anyway but until then there are better opportunities out there...
Stop just below 29. If this is hit oil will have gone off the rails and it will be worth it to jump back in after oil spikes
This blog is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.
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