Nothing Complicated Here on DUG

DUG has shot up almost 5% this morning. Why? Poor earnings from COP?
Au Contraire. They posted a hefty profit despite some weakness in the refining segment. Yet the stock and other oils are down today...

Oil is mostly about the dollar right now. The durable goods and jobless data came in better than expected. This means it is more likely the fed will reduce interest rates less or stop earlier after the next fed meeting. Oil stocks have no downside built into the price at all at this point. Anything like this could send them lower.

However, I am not optimistic that these few data points in any way suggest that the economy is healthier. It is is too early to say that Ben and the boys are done cutting rates. The big catalyst has not yet come. I will sell some of the already small DUG into this rally if it gets too extended. Most importantly I do not believe it is time to plunge in with more shares of DUG as the trend is not convincingly broken nor does it have the catalyst yet to do so in my opinion. It will happen though... just wait and see... the when is the big question so keep DUG on the radar screen...


This blog is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.