FOMC week... time to pay special attention

Some quick additional notes:
1. The market is doing overall what I thought it would. and posted below... that is to say... very little ultimate movement up or down movement until the Fed decision becomes clear. I thought it might swing a bit more wildly with a possible short-term bounce off of support but so far it hasn't... no one wants to be on the wrong side of this as we are really at a crossroads in the market right now... the market is holding its breath to see what happens with the FOMC in my opinion. The FOMC concludes on Wed... Here is the meeting link...
2. Also the food producers Con Agra and General Mills report Thurs... everyone wants to know if the higher food prices are starting to hurt their margins at all as a sign of things to come. Food is going to get expensive (even more so) in 6 mos with the floods in the grain belt... not good for consumers. LEN, KBH also report this week...
3. CMED is just ready to break out if the market let's it. SDTH did not give back after the huge rise on Fri... a very bullish sign. 3x the sales this year in chemicals biz... no wonder (see below).

Just added: This clip says a lot of what I and others have been saying about the market right now and the underlying bear nature of it... I had a second so I added it... here
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Anything could happen this week. The charts are waiting for the FOMC meeting...

This weekend in particular it is a great idea if you have time to look over top stocks and look for a bounce this week. We are hitting key support areas in many of the major indexes and we will either fall through them (look out below) or get a nice little bounce here soon. I personally think that a bounce is more likely. Either way I hope that you have a nice sum of cash ready here. I hold only one position right now, POT, and have no short positions. The rest is all cold hard cash.

Some people think that holding lots of cash is a sign that someone is afraid of the market or isn't good enough to play a tough market. I hope that this blog, among other things, has helped to dispel this myth. In times of uncertainty doing nothing is often best so that the ammo is there when clear OPPORTUNITIES arise. Please see my post: How does one become a Champion in THIS market?. Cash is a big key. The market may bounce on Monday, however I think that it will be volatile and/or not move in one defined direction overall until the FOMC meeting concludes. I might look for a day trading opportunity on Monday or I might wait until after the meeting to see what happens. As always I will let the market dictate my moves.

If the market bounces look for stocks in the LT bull markets (food, solar, electronic payment (MA, V), and others), stocks that were just waiting to break out but have been held back by the market (many here, CMED... yes CMED is one... now once again a technical buy... as it busted through the 200 MA and has been held back only by this market... ready for a move up higher if conditions are right), stocks of top companies that have fallen (I like to look at my MA, GOOG, CME, ISRG, etc. on a regular basis to see if they have been taken down by the market because often they are the first ones to bounce back,) and perhaps some stocks of decent companies in bad sectors (GS) . UYG could bounce a quite a bit or fall hard... the fed really has a lot to do this For most longs in this market I consider them to be trades. I have had stops for most of my positions, long and short, the main exception has been POT... though even that will fall hard if support is broken with volume.

Another good place to look is at the stockcharts.com scans as this week progresses as we may get some nice RSI under 30 and rising , triple bottoms, and some other plays.

On the other hand if the market does not like what the FOMC says and/or the the market fails key support short instruments are in order (QLD short has a ways to go... SKF can go further). I would use tight stops as the market is already starting to hit oversold RSI regions and if it turns up it could be a substantial move.

So I guess let me reiterate my overall point... We could have some substantial moves this week because of where we are in the charts and because of the major potential FOMC catalyst. This offers short-term opportunity. However, since the market could swing either way, there are also large risks of being on the wrong side. Either way, as I mentioned in the post Bear in Mind... we are in a trading market for most stocks with an overall bearish bias as long as we stay under the 200...

This article is informative...

It is a good idea to pay close attention this week.


On other quick point... SDTH sprung up on Fri on news that the company is expanding in the fertilizer/chemicals space. If the NPCC growth weren't enough this company's "boring" core business happens to be in a very hot area right now. This company would be trading at 10-12 easy in a different market. This company is really one to watch...
Here is the article.

Best,
Jon

Here are some charts...






This blog is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.