Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Forget about food?
This cartoon just says it all so I will unabashedly use it again.
With everything going on right now, including the short squeezes, the rally- will it hold this time... the solar sector, the fattening of China (what would they do without a little KFC?)... the greedy bears (can I say I told you so?).... etc. sometimes we forget about the biggest bull market going on in the world right now. Since I want you to succeed I am going to hit you on the head with this one more time... don't forget to watch the fertilizer stocks... especially POT and MOS. Based on their growth estimates (10% a year for the next five years.... see how it works they can't have some analyst come in like they did with ISRG and knock down the stocks pre-earnings... "Ford-Needham Analyst downgrades POT to sell citing that the global credit crisis has significantly increased the use of coffee and hard drugs by investment bankers and concomitantly decreased their need to eat"... so to keep the PEG ratios from being eye-popping they use ridiculous growth numbers... 20-25% a year sounds much more like it to me).... We have a global food crisis and nothing, I mean nothing, except for fertilizers and especially potash fertilizers will solve this. Please listen to the last POT CC. They can charge anything they want... saying that they have found there is very little elasticity of demand when it comes to the need to eat!
These companies are not expensive! relative to growth and the numbers keep going up. I truly believe that we see POT around 300 or 350 and MOS around 200 within the next year. Could I be wrong? Sure. But I can tell you that the first place I ALWAYS look to put my money on pullbacks is in these two names... With some of my other recs I say I am watching or looking or thinking about and do buy at times (like CMED and others) but with these names even in this market I am buying whenever I can on pullbacks. So are many of the best (take a look at BRAIX major holdings). If we're wrong about this we'll all want to throttle those skinny bankers' necks... but have you actually ever seen a skinny banker... enough said.
Do your own DD as always but if you are wrong I will be too on this one... Just try to look for nice pullbacks. Today MOS and POT moved back to the area of their 50 day moving averages (hence my purchase of POT around 217). POT reports on the 24h of this month and MOS on the 28th...
"The Yellow Rose Street Beat" is for informational purposes only. It does not give investment advice.
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3 comments:
looking at Monsanto myself.
Those seeds are gonna pop the fertilizer bubble in the next 5 to 10 years. They have seeds they are developing that make their own fertilizer and resistance to disease and insects.
Also looking at Brazil RIO, PBR,
and Russia MTL
Ya Heard Home Boy
RIO, PBR, MTL... some of the very best stocks in the world. PBR is Brazil's finest and MTL the pride of Eastern Europe for sure.
ADM, CF, MON, and many others are great names. In the past people have been concerned about the genetically engineered seeds but this is still questionable.
BTW... TSCO has done very well of late. I've been following that a bit. CSH also...
I cant fucking believe I didnt buy CSH when it was down. I dropped the ball on that one.
Take a look at the trend for "pawn shop" in America at
www.google.com/trends
That is one trend you cant ignore.
If CSH goes back down I am buying as well as EZCORP
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