POT doubles share buyback program and declares dividend... Who's Your Daddy NOW?

POT doubles buyback program
POT increases dividend

This was pointed out by Trader Mark (blog at right)
It gave me a quick opportunity to mention my thoughts on the market as well


Doyle to the hedgies:
'Who's your Daddy Now.

That's why POT is my largest holding. In fact, POT and MOS (though AGU works also) are currently my only non-trade holdings.

So I'm hurting because of the hedge fund unwind but fundamentals always matter eventually.

Still, while there will likely be a bounce the leverage used by hedge funds is so large that I do not expect a rapid incline in stock price to reasonable levels unless a lot of new money flows in.And what if the bounce is fairly flat in the face of more Ospraies using this as a chance to unwind their positions (whewww... we were already starting to write our bankruptcy speeches... oh wait... we have the same leverage in all the other commodities so now all we need is for all the other companies to do the same)

Regarding APWR I think this is why the charts just cannot be ignored. We can never get inside the heads of the hedge funds but we can see the writing on the wall in the charts. Why did POT and MOS fall despite the earnings?

It turns out, in large part, that the hedgies were way overleveraged and a lot of the money in there was fake. They knew this. We did not. But the lower highs and lower lows on the charts spoke all. When a stock starts to move into the lower Bolling Band after a large run up, when any stock closes below the 200 or reaches major resistance like the 200 or 50 or previous support (double top on APWR for example) I'm just selling and assuming it will go down until it proves otherwise.

Also I am looking for shorting opportunities primarily and I always try to look at all of the proshares sector ETFs and other sector ETFs each day to see where the money may be going.

I've seen too many stocks just fall off a cliff after breaking through support. I've seen too many great companies have their stocks get trounced and terrible companies have the stocks make a run.

The only place that has as close to the complete picture, even if it makes no sense, are the charts. In this market I am starting to believe that this is the first place to check, along with what the hedgies might be doing, and third the fundamentals.

That may be what is working in this market... until it proves otherwise I am not here to go up against trillions of dollars... well maybe POT remains the exception.

Ah... a chance to write a bit of thoughts. Therapeutic when I have been doing science amost of the day..





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